Module 4 -Assignment 3 - Forecasting your sales using a PERT analysis

Forecasting sales (revenue) through a PERT analysis overview

A tool called the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)  allows you, among other things to forecast your sales projections. 

Step 1: Before you begin, try to answer the following questions:

1) Does my business sell a service, product, or both?

2) What are the names of the products and/or services I sell (or intend to sell if in the concept stage)?

3) What is the selling price I charge for my product/service?

Step 2: Watch this video

Step 3: Open the PERT spreadsheet Download PERT spreadsheet

There are two sheets on this spreadsheet (product/service focused sales forecast and customer focused sales forecast). You can choose which one, or both you would like to use. I would recommend starting with one product or service (the best seller). For example, let’s say your bestselling item or service is called “X.” Let’s say the best-case scenario is that you will sell 50 units, most likely case 30 units, and worst case 10 units. Use the PERT formula to calculate the weighted average for unit sales for this item = 1 X 40 = 40 + 4 X 30 = 120 + 1 X 3 =3 || Total equals 40 + 120 + 3 = 163 divided by 6 = 27 units sold. You can then multiply this by the selling price, say $10 to arrive at your sales forecast of $270 in my example.

Create a sales forecast for one month. List your products/services, then best, most likely, and worst case scenarios in terms of total units you think you will sell over the next month. Calculate the weighted average using the formula on the spreadsheet, and then multiply each weighted average unit sales X the selling price to arrive at your sales forecast. Upload the spreadsheet when you are done.

After reviewing the resources, generate a three month sales forecast using the PERT spreadsheet link above. Please note that the Excel spreadsheet contains sample data, and you should of course change the spreadsheet to reflect your business.